JJEM: Volume 1 Issue 2 (Jul - Dec 2017)
JJEM: Volume 1 Issue 2 (Jul - Dec 2017)
2017-12-30
An Empirical Analysis to Assess the GDP Projection in Gujarat State of India
Ajay Kumar Singh
This study is conducted to forecast the GDP of Gujarat using 34 years data of GDP and explanatory variables. It employs Box-Jenkins methodology through ARIMA model. This projection for in-of-sample and out-ofsample are estimated based on regression coefficients which are measured using univariate and multivariate econometric models. In ARIMA(2) model,the estimated RMSFE values are lowest and Chi2 values are statistically significant, thus produce better results.Projected results based on univariate model demonstrates that Gujarat’s GDP would be increased from INR 48,093,236 to INR 66,387,416 Million by 2050. Also, GDP growth is expected to be increased by 11.35% to 12.50% by 2050. Moreover, estimates also specify that GDP growth would be 8.81% to 9.29% during 2016- 2020.Empirical results based on multivariate model is also confirming the previous results by depicting increasing trend for GDP,from INR 87,55,119 to INR 91,95,090 Million.It provides several policy suggestions to achieve estimated GDP growth in Gujarat.
GDP projection; GDP growth; Univariate model; multivariate model.